NFL

Atlanta Falcons Fall To Seattle Seahawks In 2020 NFL Season #NFLKickoff Opener

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The majority of Atlanta Falcons fans were wondering which version of the Falcons would surface in 2020. Well, the answer after week one against the Seattle Seahawks is the bad one.

The Atlanta Falcons, or The Dirty Birds, lost 38-25 at home to Seattle on Sunday. The overall performance raised several questions on both sides of the ball.

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson runs against the Falcons (Photo courtesy USA Today)
Seahawks QB Russell Wilson runs against the Falcons (Photo courtesy USA Today)

Yes, it’s over-Reaction Monday, but here goes.

Three Questions.

1. With the Falcons opting to play 3 safeties, why did defensive captain Ricardo Allen only play 25 snaps and Demonte Kazee play all 62 defensive snaps?

2. Why does the defensive scheme almost completely eradicate one of the league’s best line-backers in Deon Jones?

3. Why did Dirk Koetter not adjust to Seahawks safety Jamal Adams playing so many snaps up on the line of scrimmage. What are blocking tight ends used for if not to block?

Some key and, less than impressive game notes.

The Falcons were 0/4 on fourth down.

False start on an extra point, and then missed it.

The defense gave up a first down on 3rd and 23

Wilson was 31-35 passing- Not a single Russell Wilson pass today has been thrown into a tight window (<1 yard of separation) per Next Gen Stats.”

Three plus points.

The Falcons had three players with over 100 yards receiving

Atlanta recorded three sacks (a problem area over the first 8 games of 2019)

Younghoe Koo executed another perfect onside kick.

The Falcons go to Dallas in week 2. Let’s see if they can fix some of these issues.

Texans at KC Chiefs NFL Kickoff 2020 Weekend Preview

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NFL Kickoff 2020

In three hours, the Houston Texans will open the 2020 NFL Season against the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs. Here are some of the preview notes, thanks to the National Football League:

SUPER STARTERS: History indicates that the best way for a team to start its drive toward a Super Bowl cham​pionship is to win in Week 1.​

The 54 Super Bowl winners have a 44-9-1 record in the Kickoff Weekend games of their title seasons. The Super Bowl LIV champion KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, who host Houston in the NFL’s annual primetime kickoff game on Thursday (8:20 PM ET, NBC), have won their past five Kickoff Weekend games, the longest active streak in the AFC and tied for the longest active streak in the NFL (Green Bay).

Since 1978 when the NFL went to the 16-game schedule, and excluding the abbreviated season of 1982, teams that are victorious in their season-openers are more than twice as likely to reach the playoffs than losers of an opening game:

Of the 617 teams that won openers…322 went to the playoffs (196 won division titles).
Of the 616 teams that lost openers…148 went to the playoffs (86 won division titles).

​Note: There are a different number of winning and losing teams in season-opening games due to the fact the NFL had 31 teams in each season from 1999-2001, which creates an odd number for the total number of results.

In 2019, the 12 playoff teams compiled an 11-1 record on Kickoff Weekend and all four participants in the conference championships – Green Bay, Kansas City, San Francisco and Tennessee – were victorious in Week 1.

Matchup of expensive quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes vs Deshaun Watson

Patrick Mahomes has a $450 million contract extension (now $500 million) and Deshaun Watson has a $160 million contract extension. This marks the first time that the two highest paid quarterbacks in the NFL are black. At a time where “Black Lives Matter” is the rightful rallying cry, the NFL’s proving it: with money.

KC Chiefs Allowing 18,000 Fans In The Stadium

The Kansas City Chiefs are allowing 18,000 fans in Arrowhead Stadium. Also, the stadium manager say this:

In addition to staff, all guests are required to wear masks at Arrowhead Stadium at all times including while in your seating section except when actively eating or drinking.
Masks must completely and tightly cover the wearer’s nose and mouth.
Guests failing to adhere to this policy will be subject to disciplinary measures as outlined in the Fan Code of Conduct.

This is going to be fun to watch. Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 34, Houston Texans 28.

Stay tuned.

NFL 2020: Raiders D vs Carolina Panthers, Teddy Bridgewater Ran, Joe Brady Formed, Offense

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Teddy Bridgewater

The former Oakland Raiders now Las Vegas Raiders will travel to Charlotte North Carolina for what I think is its greatest test this 2020 NFL Season: the Las Vegas Raiders Defense facing the brand-new Carolina Panthers Offense ran by Teddy Bridgewater and designed by former LSU Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady.

Joe Brady Carolina Panthers
Joe Brady Carolina Panthers (photo courtesy NFL.com)

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Raiders Defensive Coordinator Paul Guenther has to get his squad ready for an onslaught formed to play fast and use space. Guenther’s game planning from a place of great disadvantage.

The first disadvantage is that there’s no pattern for Guenther and the Raiders analytical brass to reliably employ.

From what training camp videos I have seen, Joe Brady’s Offense is designed to quickly get the ball out of Bridgewater’s hands and into those of Panthers Running Back Christian McCaffrey, or any one of the pass catchers in three or four receivers formations.

And, Brady’s brief offensive coordinator history, with his only meaningful stint the 2019 LSU Tigers Offense with Joe Burrow, shows he will employ a steady diet of Run-Pass-Option (RPO) plays, slot receiver option-route passes, and packages where receivers exchange positions, but run the same basic play.

Combined with a no-huddle attack, the overall result will be painfully effective considering Guenther’s tendency to play loose coverage defense when faced with such an approach. The one time that was not the case was against the Arizona Cardinals, last preseason, with the rookie QB Kyler Murray. The vast difference was that Kliff Kingsbury’s Airraid attack is not based on short, timed passes; Joe Brady’s Offense, not designed using the wild-west passing approach of Mike Leach and Hal Mumme, is.

So, this approach fusing short, timed passes out of spread formations, combined with RPO plays, with multiple sets and constantly going without a huddle, is an attack the Raiders have not faced before. Because of that, it will take the Silver and Black Defense the first half to adjust to what the Panthers will do.

And on top of all of that, the other problem is what new wrinkle the Carolina Panthers Offense will show that’s not on any video? For example, Joe Brady’s LSU Offense was not known for having a large set of gadget plays. But what about the NFL version? The real question is how should Guenther’s game plan look?

If I were Paul Guenther, I’d install inside-out, man-for-man, press coverages. That’s the one best way to cut off the RPO glance plays and slants and in-routes, and blitz the corner linebackers often, with the idea of disrupting the Panthers rhythm passing game.

In other words, pressure.

Absent that, constant defensive pressure, the Las Vegas Raiders will have a long day against the Carolina Panthers Offense.

Next Gen Stats Route Recognition NFL Receiver Model Is Garbage, Here’s Why

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nfl_100_logo_new

On August 25th, 2020, on NFL,com, the league’s “Next Gen Stats Analytics Team” posted “Next Gen Stats: Intro to new Route Recognition Model”. And, thus continuing the NFL’s fascination with the data pouring out of the new player-tracking technology, the Next Gen Stats Analytics Team has proven that the old computer industry saying “garbage in – garbage out” still applied today. The Next Gen Stats Route Recognition Model is evidence of that.

First, in explaining the raison d’tre behind the Route Recognition Model, the Next Gen Stats Analytics Team wrote this (which is a little like driving from Downtown Oakland, down to San Jose, then up the 101 in the West Bay, past Stanford and then SFO Airport, and Redwood City, to get to San Francisco, rather than just using the Bay Bridge):

Conventional counting stats like receptions and receiving yards provide a way to measure an individual player’s ability to catch and move the football, but they only tell part of the story. Advanced stats like depth of target, separation window and completion probability provide greater insight, but they still leave out an important factor. Namely, which route did the pass catcher run to get open before catching the ball?
With the help of player-tracking technology, the Next Gen Stats Analytics team set out to answer that exact question, decoding one of the key elements of an offensive play call by using player-tracking data to measure which routes pass catchers are running on any given pass play.
The Next Gen Stats player-tracking system records the x-y location, speed, acceleration, direction and orientation of all 22 players on the field in real time. Our new Route Recognition model leverages this data as inputs into a model that assigns a route type to every eligible receiver on every pass play, including tight ends and running backs. Our architectural approach uses a combination of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks trained on Amazon’s SageMaker platform. CNNs allow us to engage with the spatial nature of our dataset (that is, where each player is on the field in a given play), while LSTM networks allow us to engage with the temporal nature of our dataset (what happens as the play develops over time).
We approached routes run by players aligned in the backfield separately from routes run by players aligned out wide, in the slot or tight, because of clear differences in route archetypes. Below are the 15 unique route types assigned to all route runners, based on their location when the ball is snapped. Note that while NFL playbooks have hundreds of variations of routes, we’ve narrowed it down to these high-level categories, including 10 routes for those in typical wideout alignments and five for those aligned in the backfield:
Wideout Routes (10): Screen, flat, slant, crossing, out, in, hitch, corner, post, go
Backfield Routes (5): Screen, flat, angle, out, wheel
Real-time route classification enables us to contextualize the passing game in new ways. We can study league-wide trends to gain a new understanding of offensive strategy and tendencies, and we can break down and rank individual players by advanced performance metrics.

The last sentence, “ we can break down and rank individual players by advanced performance metrics” is one I completely disagree with.

Got that? Ok, I digress here to point out that since the Halfback in my play “Eagle Right H Fly Motion Up, Shortout Swing Pass” (and part of my soon-to-be-introduced “Black Panther Offense”) runs an “up” pattern, the Next Gen Stats Route Recognition Model would have a problem fitting it into its analysis parameters. And that’s where I start my critique.

Eagle Right H Fly Motion Up, Shortout Swing Pass
Eagle Right H Fly Motion Up, Shortout Swing Pass

The Saints Michael Thomas Was The NFL Leading Receiver For 2019, Before The Next Gen Stats Route Recognition Model

Second, the Next Gen Stats Route Recognition Model that was introduced also came with the headlines for a post that reads Michael Thomas is the best route runner. Then, it goes on to say that he runs the crossing pattern better than anyone else, because his catch rate is higher. Right?

Well, if you actually look at Michael Thomas’ catches for all of 2019, you will see that when he did catch a crossing pattern, most of the time, he came out of a slot or a bunch set, or was helped by a “clear out” pattern. The problem with the Next Gen Stats Route Recognition Model, and its attempt to simply routes for the purpose of the model, is one loses any understanding of what the Saints do to get Thomas into a position where he’s effective so often. In other words, the reason for Michael Thomas’ great 2019 campaign was what head coach Sean Payton and his staff did to put Mr. Thomas in position to be great – and that was enabled by Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Brees as the quarterbacks for that year.

What I take away from Michael Thomas’ record-setting 2019 effort was the continued advances in using wide receivers as the focus of a ball-control passing game. (Something pioneered by Bill Walsh, but improved on by Bill Belichick during the 2006 NFL Season where the Pats nearly achieved a perfect record – but were stopped by the NY Giants in Super Bowl XLII). I also take away from Michael Thomas’ record-setting 2019 effort, the importance of designing plays that cause the quarterback to get rid of the ball faster.

The main question is this: can Michael Thomas’ record-setting 2019 effort be topped in 2020? I think it can if head coach Sean Payton introduces new formations continue to to give Thomas the “rub” and space from defenders to make catches. It’s clear the Saints have arguably the best passing game developed from a perspective of timing between quarterback and receiver. Don’t discount the role formations play in that outcome.

The missing element in the Next Gen Stats Route Recognition Model is any real consideration for formations. There’s no ability to determine which route came from a bunch set, for example, or a tight-slot lineup, to offer another.

In closing, as one who was the only media (other than NFL Media) to attend the NFL’s Big Data Event at the 2020 NFL Combine, I applaud the league’s effort to shine a light, a bright one, on game analytics. My only concern is that, in doing so, there is a tendency to forget the importance of knowing how the game works. For example, the winner of the 2020 Big Data Event was a very nice man named Matt Ploenzke who’s model was such that no one, not even himself, could clearly articulate how it could help the NFL beyond what we already know.

What he found was “Among roughly 40 input variables, a ball carrier’s “effective acceleration” was the most important for estimating yards gained on a handoff play.” Look, anyone who’s seen Dallas Cowboys NFL Hall of Fame Running Back Tony Dorsett hit the hole fast can tell you that. Dorsett will always be my favorite NFL ball carrier. Watch this:

 

Meanwhile, Graham Pash and Walker Powell of NC State, who…

used kinematic data such as player positions and velocity to determine zones of control for both the offensive and defensive teams at the time of the handoff. These zones of control predict the probabilities of yards lost or gained and quantifies the risk involved with plays.
Key stat: Robert Woods (Los Angeles Rams) and Raheem Mostert (San Francisco 49ers) outperformed the model predictions the most, averaging nearly three more yards than predicted over the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

…Came in second!

And Namrata Ray, Jugal Marfatia (Washington State University), who…

measured the open space of the rusher at three time intervals — handoff, after a half-second, and after one second — to understand the association between open space and yards gained. Results indicated that the difference in the open space between the time of handoff and after a half-second or full second was a strong predictor of the number of yards gained.
Key Stat: Yards gained by the rusher increases by four yards on average for every one percent increase in the additional open area created within a half-second of the handoff.

Came in third!

That was nuts.

What Namrata Ray and Jugal Marfatia learned, for me, should revolutionize running play design and formation use. Right now, too many NFL teams pay zero attention to line split variations in play design. Just saying.

Matt Ploenzke’s now working for the Niners. Remember, Matt: formations matter!

Don’t Forget The Name Ermal Allen, Dallas Cowboys Quality Control Coach

Tom Landry And Ermal Allen Ap Shutterstock Photo
Tom Landry And Ermal Allen Ap Shutterstock Photo

At the same NFL Combine 2020, I noticed that media types seem to think we’re in some kind of golden age of data. Even someone with the Dallas Cowboys (name left out) bought that kool aide. Then, I mentioned that the real pioneer of analytics was Ermal Allen, Dallas Cowboys Quality Control Coach under Head Coach Tom Landry. Allen used computers to scout team tendencies, and a did remarkable job with the limited technology of the age compared to today. But the point is, he set the tone for the analytics departments of NFL teams in the 21st Century.

This is from United Press International in 1981:

Allen played his college football as a quarterback at the University of Kentucky and coached there from 1948 through 1961. He and assistant head coach Jim Myers have the longest tenure under Cowboys head coach Tom Landry, who has coached the team since its inception in 1960.

NFL teams exchange films of their last four games for scouting purposes and Allen dissects those films in an attempt to learn everything there is to know about the opponent.

All the information he gleans from his studies is fed into a computer to try to predict what a club is most likely to do in certain situations. All of that information is ready for the rest of the staff by the first of each week to assist Landry and his assistants in the formulation of their game plan.

On game days Allen stays in the press box with three other assistants to chart the opposition’s plays with Tubbs.

Stay tuned.

NFL 2020 Season Preview By David Squires For Zennie62Media

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NFL fans are still hoping that the 2020 season will go ahead in some way shape or form. It has already been confirmed that some college football conferences have cancelled their upcoming seasons. What we do know is that if games are to be played capacities will be, at the very best, significantly reduced.

As it stands, nineteen teams have indicated that they will open their stadium to a reduced capacity. Six teams have stated that they will have somewhere in between a limited attendance or no fans at all. And three teams, the Giants, Jets and Raiders have said that they will not open their stadiums to fans, for the 2020 season while four teams have yet to decide or announce their intention as of this writing.

* The Miami Dolphins have announced that they will have a maximum attendance of 13,000, which is 20% of its capacity.

Of course, all of this and the season itself will be subject to change on a, week to week basis. The NFL can take heart from the fact that the English Premier league season was completed behind closed doors without incident. However, some parts of the States still have large numbers of ‘Covid‘ cases. Since teams will be playing in front of, at the very best drastically reduced capacity, could those teams in high-risk areas not play in a different city or even state?

Arsenal win the F.A cup at an empty Wembley Stadium.The league offered the players the chance to ‘opt out’ of the season and earn a reduced salary. $350,000 for a player who is deemed to be ‘high risk’ due to the pandemic and $150,000 for a player not immediately at risk. Sixty-six players opted out, just under 4% based on the fifty-three-man roster sizes for all thirty-two teams. One change for the 2020 season to assist with this situation is an increase to the size of the practice squads. These have now been increased from ten to sixteen, with four of those players being protected (unable to be signed by another team) on a weekly basis.

Could the NFL take a leaf out of the NBA’s book by playing all the games in one venue? The problem here is that the roster size of an NBA team is fifteen, whilst the NFL is fifty-three ,significantly higher. Baseball have made some adjustments too. A shortened season and a schedule re-jig cutting down on travel where possible. This scenario is more likely and much more possible than the NBA’s version of events. Again, as it stands, the scheduled season is due to go ahead on September 10th, despite the pre-season being cancelled completely.  The International fixtures have also been cancelled.

The lack of home crowds could make for a much more even playing field. Home field advantage will be less of, exactly that, an advantage. Without crowd noise, false starts and pre-snap penalties should be at an all-time low.  The NFL is looking into the possibility of ‘artificial crowd noise’ in stadiums, something that previously would have been against league rules.

Off Season Headlines:

  • Washington no longer to use the nickname ‘Redskins’.
  • Raiders move to Vegas
  • Rams and Chargers move into new stadium.
  • Playoffs extended to 14 teams.
  • Mahomes signs biggest ever contract.
  • Joe Burrow goes #1 to Cincy, Chase Young #2 to Washington.
  • Brady and Gronk re-unite in Tampa.
  • Receiver Hopkins traded from Texans to Cardinals.
  • Rivers to Colts, Newton to Patriots.
  • Gurley back in Georgia, signs for Falcons.
  • Super Bowl  LV will be held at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa.

The AFC probably has the best two teams in the NFL and with the Patriots seemingly facing uncertain times the Chiefs and Ravens will be looking to take advantage.

The AFC Frontrunners. 

The defending champion, Kansas City Chiefs and Quarterback Patrick Mahomes got married this off season. The Chiefs paid out the biggest contract in sports history when they gave the Super Bowl MVP a ten-year contract which could be worth up to $503 Million. $140 Million of that is guaranteed.

Aside from the large contract the Chiefs could be set to dominate the AFC in the same way the Patriots have for the last, nearly twenty years. The Chiefs also gave defensive tackle Chris Jones a new contract and didn‘t lose anyone of note in the off season. The addition of Clyde Edwards-Hillaire in the draft could pay off early. The Chiefs were first in the NFL on third down conversions and in Travis Kelce have the best tight end in the NFL. Kelce is the only TE history to have 4 straight 1000 yard seasons.

As for the New England, Brady is gone therefore the Patriots will start the season with a different QB for the first time since 2001. The last time they missed the post season was in 2008 when Brady missed 15 games through injury. Former Panther, Cam Newton himself recovering from a foot injury was brought in to compete with Jarrett Stidham. The Patriots could well be watching the playoffs from their sofa’s for the first time in twelve years. New England had the most mount of players who ‘opted out’ of the season due to the pandemic with 8.

The biggest challenge to the Kansas City Chiefs will likely come from Baltimore. The Baltimore Ravens had the NFL’s best record (14-2) last season but were left stunned by the Titans in the playoffs. If Lamar Jackson and the offense can continue to produce the way they did in 2019, then they will be tough to stop. Jackson may not find things quite as easy in 2020 as defensive coordinators will have been studying and scheming to try to limit his production. The Ravens ranked 2nd in offense but 27th in passing. Jackson led the team in rushing with over 1200 yards. The Ravens remain the second favourite in the AFC behind the Chiefs.

The Titans run to the AFC championship game in 2019 was something as a surprise. Tennessee went 9-7 and clinched a playoff spot on the last day of the regular season. Ryan Tannehill and more importantly, Derrick Henry have been resigned but Logan Ryan and Cameron Wake left in free agency. The Titans game plan of old school football won’t change as long as Henry is healthy. Receiver AJ Brown topped 1000 yards in his rookie season and could quickly turn into one of the league’s best wide outs.

It was the Texans who won the AFC South, but they lost one of the league‘s best receivers, DeAndre Hopkins in a surprising trade that sent running back David Johnson to Houston. Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks were signed in free agency. DeShaun Watson remains a polarizing player but his numbers were slightly down compared to 2018. With the talent the Texans have they should be doing more on offense, they ranked 13th in total offense and 14th in scoring. The defense is a bigger problem and keeping JJ Watt on the field will again prove an important factor especially come playoff time.

Another front runner in the AFC could be the Buffalo Bills. The Bills went 10-6 and lost a wildcard game to the Texans that they probably should have won, extending their playoff win drought to 25 years. Quarterback Josh Allen needs to improve in the passing game that ranked 26th overall in 2019. The addition of former Viking receiver  Stefon Diggs should help. The Bills drafted quarterback Jake Fromm (Georgia) in the fifth round in an attempt to put some pressure on Allen. The Bills ranked second in overall defense and in Tre’Davious White have one of the NFL’s best corners and they signed veteran Josh Norman to play on the opposite side.

The Broncos and Drew Lock improved as the season went on, grabbing a respectable 7-9 record. Lock will have some more assistance in tis time around. Receiver  Jerry Jeudy (Alabama) was drafted in the first round and running back Melvin Gordon singed in free agency. Five time Pro Bowler Jurell Casey arrived from Tennessee and if he can be disruptive in the middle then Von Miller and Bradley Chubb can take advantage on the outside. AJ Bouye replaces Chris Harris at corner. A 10-6 record should be enough for a post season berth and certainly looks achievable.

Pushing for a playoff spot.

The Jets could be looking to take advantage of a Brady less Patriots. They will need more consistent play from QB Sam Darnold and although they have two good backs in Bell and the evergreen Frank Gore, the receiver position could be better. The Jets best defensive player, Jamal Adams was traded to Seattle.  Another middle of the road season looks likely.

The Cleveland Browns have it all in place to make their first playoff appearance since 2002. Baker Mayfield looked to have taken a backward step in 2019 but the offense has plenty of weapons and new offensive minded head coach, Kevin Stefanski should really help. The Browns made some really nice additions in free agency,  Austin Hooper (TE), Adrian Clayborn (DE), Jack Conklin (OT) and Andrew Sendejo (S) will significantly improve the roster. Despite the talent on both sides of the ball, both the offense and defense ranked 22nd overall and therefore improvement is needed if they are going to challenge for a playoff spot.

The Colts signed Phillip Rivers to effectively replace Andrew Luck after Jacoby Brissett failed to make the most of his opportunity. Washington and former Georgia QB Jacob Eason was drafted late on. Rookie RB Jonathan Taylor could hit the ground running behind one of the best offensive lines in football. Free agent corner Xavier Rhodes will improve the secondary but Rivers could be the difference maker.

The Raiders and now in Las Vegas. We will have to wait a little longer to see if their famous ‘black hole’ has gone with them. The Raiders went 7-9 in 2019 and will probably be somewhere between that or 9-7 in 2020. It’s a big year for Derrick Carr who will likely be out if he doesn’t take a good sized step forwards. The Raiders are one of the few teams that carry three quarterbacks on their roster. General Manager Mike Mayock  added speedy receiver Henry Ruggs (Alabama)but the rest of their draft was questionable.

Pittsburgh seem to be in something of a transition period, Ben Roethlisberger returns after injury and tight end Eric Ebron was added but the roster is mostly the same one that went 8-8 last year. If Big Ben can play 16 games the Steelers could squeeze a few more wins and a spot in the playoffs especially as their schedule looks favourable.

Looking to the Future.

Miami appear to have something that they haven’t had in a long time, a quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama) was drafted fifth overall.  Shaq Lawson, Kyle Van Noy and Matt Breida were all nice free agent additions. Seven wins would be seen a successful season.

The Chargers have lost Rivers and Gordon and will go with  Tyrod Taylor or rookie Justin Herbert (Oregon) at QB. Safety Derwin James is back from injury but it’s hard to see much better than the five wins they managed last season.

Jacksonville will roll with Gardner Minshew at quarterback as Nick Foles is gone. The Jags drafted very well adding Corner CJ Henderson (Florida), edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson and receiver Laviska Shenault in the first two rounds.  The Jaguars always seem to be a young team that are looking to build.

The Bengals only won two games in 2019 but if Joe Burrow (LSU) can perform like he did last year, winning the National championship and the Hiesman trophy then perhaps there is hope for the future. AJ Green will be back from injury to help and Joe Mixon is one of the league’s best backs but that’s about it.

Projected Records:

AFC East: Bills 11-5, Patriots 7-9, Jets 7-9, Dolphins 6-10 

AFC North: Ravens 12-4, Browns 10-6, Steelers 9-7, Bengals 3-13

AFC South: Titans 11-5, Texans 9-7, Colts 9-7, Jaguars 4-12

AFC West: Chiefs 12-4, Broncos 10-6, Raiders 8-8, Chargers 3-13

The NFC appears to be wide open with perhaps no obvious number one team but several very good teams that are all capable of putting a run together to be the best team in the NFC.

The NFC Frontrunners. 

Injuries have plagued the Eagles for several years but last year was worse than ever. Josh McCown played the majority of their wildcard loss to Seattle, throwing to receivers that not many people had heard of. If  Carson Wentz, DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery can stay on the field Philadelphia should return to the playoffs. Jalen Hurts was drafted as more than just a backup and could be used in certain packages. Injuries hit them hard on defense too, especially in the secondary. Safety Will Parks replaces Malcolm Jenkins and free agent corners, Nickell Robey-Coleman and ball hawk Darius Slay will shore things up.

The 49ers blew a ten-point fourth quarter lead in the Super Bowl, something that’s becoming a habit for head coach Kyle Shanahan. The team returns eighteen starters from last year. San Fran replaced defensive tackle DeForrest Buckner with rookie Javon Kinlaw and tackle Joe Staley who retired with Trent Williams from Washington. Defensively the 49ers should still be top five. The offense ranked second overall in 2019 mainly thanks to their running game.  Teams will no doubt look to stop the run and see if the inconsistent Jimmy Garoppolo can beat them.

It felt like the Packers over achieved with a 13-3 record in 2019, the blow-out loss to the 49ers in the NFC championship game would seem to back that theory up.  The drafting of quarterback Jordan Love in the first round raised a few eyebrows both in and out of Green Bay. The team seems desperately short of receivers but didn’t manage to draft a single one. The defense wasn’t that good last year and there is no suggestion that it will be any better this time around.  One huge plus for the Pack was the play of running back Aaron Jones who rushed for 1,084 yards and added 16 touchdowns.

The Vikings lost some considerable talent in the off-season, Diggs, Joseph, Griffen, Rhodes and Sendejo all left town. Minnesota did draft well and their first four picks could see significant game time. Kirk Cousins appeared to get over a hump, putting together a winning drive on the road in New Orleans in the playoffs.  Running back Dalvin Cook has a shot to lead the league in rushing.  A lot will depend on how the team cope with replacing experience with rookies.

Jason Garrett’s time in Dallas is finally up, replaced by former Packers head coach Mike McCarthy. However as always there is still drama in Jerry World. Quarterback Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have yet to agree a new deal, as a result Prescott will play the 2020 season under the franchise tag. Jerry Jones couldn’t believe his luck and couldn’t resist the urge when Oklahoma receiver CeeDee Lamb fell in their lap in the first round of the draft. Add Lamb to Cooper, Gallup and Elliott and the offense could again lead the league like it did in 2019. Cowboys legend Jason Witten signed for the Raiders. On defense the cowboys added both Dontari Poe and Gerald McCoy at defensive tackle and added safety Ha Ha Clinton Dix and drafted corner Trevon Diggs (Alabama) in the second round.

How will another devastating playoff loss affect the Saints? Drew Brees is now 41 and has only completed one pass that travelled 35 ‘air’ yards since 2017 but only threw 4 interceptions in 2019. Teddy Bridgewater went 5-0 as a starter when Brees got hurt but left for Carolina and former Buccaneer, Jameis Winston is now the back up. Speedster Emmanuel Sanders signed as a free agent as did once former Saints safety Malcolm Jenkins. Alvin Kamara had something of a down year by his standards.  The defense probably played a little better than expected, ranking 11th overall.  The Saints have won the NFC South for the last 3 years.

Pushing for a playoff spot.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven’t made the playoffs in 12 years, Jeff Garcia was their quarterback and Jon Gruden  the head coach. Tom Brady is now the man and his former ‘go to guy’ in New England, tight end Rob Gronkowski came out of retirement to join him. Brady is 42 and looked on the decline last year, Gronk is one concussion away from a second retirement and hasn’t played a full season since 2011. The hype train should probably slow down a little. The Buccs do have weapons though, Evans, Goodwin and Ronald Jones racked up the numbers last season. On defense Shaquil Barrett lead the NFL with 19.5 sacks but the secondary needs a significant improvement.

Which Atlanta Falcons team will turn up in 2020? The one that started last season 1-7 or the one that finished it 6-2 grabbing impressive road wins in New Orleans and San Francisco. Head coach Dan Quinn is very much on the hot seat and only a playoff berth can save him. The offense is loaded with talent but the play calling could be better at times. Running back and Georgia ‘fan favourite’ Todd Gurley was signed to replace Devonta Freeman who was cut for salary cap purposes. On defense the team improved when Quinn gave up play calling duties and Raheem Morris is now the full time defensive coordinator. Another Former Ram, Dante Fowler JR was signed to help improve the improve the pass rush, defensive tackle Grady Jarrett is a legit playmaker.

Arizona had what looked like a bad season going 5-10-1, however there seem to be plenty of encouraging signs to suggest that they are on the rise. Rookie head coach Kliff Kingsbury has input his ‘Air Raid’ concept offense and his rookie QB, Kyler Murray passed for over 3,500 yards and rushed for over 500 in an impressive debut season. The Cardinals racked up a league high, 6,432 yards in 2019. Murray will be aided further by the addition of one of the league’s best receivers, DeAndre Hopkins who was acquired via trade. The Cardinals main problem is their defense, which ranked dead last overall.  Swiss army knife linebacker Isaiah Simmons was drafted from Clemson but they could and should have done more to improve this unit.

In 2019 Seattle finally solved a problem they’ve had since Marshawn Lynch left town in 2015, running the football. The run by committee approach led by Chris Carson was good enough for fourth in the league in rush yards. Quarterback Russell Wilson was again impressive throwing 31 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions. The Seahawks could not agree terms with defensive end Jadeveon Clowney so they brought back Bruce Irvin and drafted outside linebacker, Jordyn Brooks (Texas Tech) in the first round in an attempt to improve the faltering defense.

It’s all change for the Rams, a new stadium two new coordinators and new uniforms. They also lost several big names in Gurley, Cooks, Fowler Jr, Weddle, Matthews, Robey-Coleman and kicker Greg Zuerlein, mostly due to salary cap issues. The Rams did however, have a good draft despite not having a first round pick, given away when they traded for Jalen Ramsey towards the end of last season. Running back Cam Akers (Florida State) and receiver Van Jefferson (Florida) were both drafted in the second round.  Aaron Donald leads the defense which will likely be similar to last seasons number of 13th overall. The Rams may benefit from that extra playoff spot because they don’t appear to be any better than last year in which they went 9-7.

Looking to the Future.

Chicago seem to have lost a little patience with QB Mitch Trubisky, trading for former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles. It feels somewhat unlikely that either player will start all 16 games. The Bears lost more good players than they gained and it’s hard to see an improvement on last years 8-8 record.

The Giants have yet another head coach, this time former Patriots assistant and the latest Bill Belichick  disciple Joe Judge takes the reigns and former Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett is the OC.  Eli Manning has officially retired and Daniel Jones is now the starter. The Giants have some talent on the offense and will again lean on running back Saquon Barkley. Have they really improved much on the team that won just four games last season?

In 2019 Washington ranked 31st in total offense and 27th in total defense, not a surprise that they finished 3-13 or that head coach Jay Gruden was fired. Former Panthers HC Ron Rivera is now in charge and another former head coach, Jack Del Rio is the defensive coordinator. The jury is still out on Dwayne Haskins, another former Panther Kyle Allen was acquired in a trade as Alex Smith is still recovering from injury. Ohio State ‘phenom’ defensive end Chase Young was drafted second overall.

Head coach Matt Patricia came close to getting fired in the off season after going 9-22-1 over the last two seasons. Quarterback Matt Stafford missed 8 games through injury and the Lions lost all 8. It is therefore some what impressive that the Lions ranked 17th in total offense last year. The problems really lie on the other side of the ball. Cornerbacks, Desmond Trufant (Falcons) and the third overall pick in the draft Jeff Okudah (Ohio State) are in as is former Patriot linebacker Jamie Collins. Detroit signed 13 new players in the off season and let the same number depart.

The Carolina Panthers have a new head coach, former Baylor man Matt Rhule comes in, and Teddy Bridgewater replaces Cam Newton at QB. The leader of the defense Luke Kuechly retired and veteran tight end Greg Olsen was let go. Thankfully for the Panthers running back, Christian McCaffrey is still around and shows no sign of slowing down.  This is definitely a rebuild which will be helped by the good draft the team had with Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Brown the pick of the crop.

Projected Records:

NFC East: Cowboys 10-6, Eagles 10-6, Giants 4-12, Washington 2-12

NFC North: Vikings 11-5, Packers 10-6, Bears 5-11, Lions 4-12

NFC South: Saints 11-5, Falcons 10-6, Buccaneers 9-7, Panthers 2-14

NFC West: 49ers 13-3, Seahawks 10-6, Cardinals 7-9, Rams 6-10

 

Written by: Dave Squires

@davefalconUK

 

 

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