Oakland Mayoral Race: Sheng Thao Over Loren Taylor By 680 Votes: Allyssa Victory’s Fishy Rcv Votes

Oakland Mayoral Race: Sheng Thao Over Loren Taylor By 680 Votes: Allyssa Victory’s Fishy RCV Votes

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Oakland News Now Blog – vlog by Zennie62 YouTube.

Oakland Mayoral Race: Sheng Thao Over Loren Taylor By 680 Votes: The Fishy Role Of Allyssa Victory’s RCV Votes To Sheng

As of now, while it’s not official, Oakland District 4 Councilmember (for this year) Sheng Thao has overtaken Oakland District 6 Councilmember Loren Taylor by 680 votes when Rank Choice Voting tallies are added by the Alameda County Registrar of Voters.

Councilmember Taylor started out 41252 votes to Councilmember Thao’s 39654 votes for first choice. But when Rank Choice Votes were added, that changed to 56841 for Sheng Thao versus 56161 for Councilmember Taylor. But what’s interesting is what is behind the reason for Sheng Thao’s rise: an outsized number of Rank Choice Voting votes for Sheng Thao from fellow candidate Allyssa Victory.

Now, of Allyssa Victory’s 14047 votes, 8378 went to Sheng Thao and that’s almost three times what Ignacio De La Fuente received from Allyssa Victory, or about 59.64 percent, or 60 percent, of the total RCV votes Ms. Victory had to give. Why did that happen?

Well, in 2010, Rebecca Kaplan and Jean Quan famously teamed up to run for Mayor of Oakland in the first year RCV was used. They campaigned for months. The final outcome was that Jean Quan got two-thirds of all second place votes and the spread was directly attributable to their team up. Here’s my interview with then Oakland City Attorney John Russo, where we talked about the impact of that team up on the election outcome:

This time, in 2022, the situation is different: Sheng Thao and Allyssa Victory did not campaign together for months. And on top of that, I asked Allyssa Victory if Sheng Thao was her second choice and she said “No. Greg Hodge was.” But we both agreed that perhaps it was Shang mentioning that Allyssa was her second choice. But if that were the case, then Allyssa Victory should have picked up a large number of Sheng Thao Rank Choice Voting votes – but that never happened.

What did happen was that a shockingly uniform number percentage of votes was transferred from Allyssa Victory to Sheng Thao: 59.64 percent, rounding to 60 percent. That was true for the most recent run and the one a day before it. On that November 17th day, I vlogged “Sheng got 6,475 votes from Allyssa Victory or about 60 percent of the 10,882 votes she had to give.” That same percentage appeared yet again for the same transfer of votes from Allyssa Victory to Sheng Thao on November 17th, too.

Moreover, that Allyssa Victory was giving the majority of her votes to Sheng Thao in a giant sized batch is a pattern I noticed from the second day of Rank Choice Voting runs up to Friday. While I did not check the percentage then, I would not be surprised if it came up to about 60 percent, as it looked to me at the time.

And in this interview with Allyssa from two days ago, at the 5:30 mark, I note that she gave over 58 percent of her sharable Rank Choice votes to Sheng when I presented the run from Wednesday, November 16th. That’s just less than one percent difference from Thursday and Friday. Note that Allyssa does admit she had Greg Hodge as her number two but says that people can vote however they want. For me, the point is Allyssa ‘s people had a weird pattern of picking Sheng 58-59 percent of the time, through the entire run:

I find it very concerning that the same 59.64 percent, rounding to 60 percent percentage of votes was shared from Allyssa Victory to Sheng Thao for each of these runs. I hate to say it, but that looks fishy: as if someone was pre-picking votes for Sheng using a code that broke off 60 percent of the votes and dumped them into Sheng’s column on a spreadsheet. One should expect an uneven, or “non-linear” pattern; this one is far too machine-like.

Why the uniform outcome on a per-run-basis? That’s to be investigated. It’s way too weird, specially since Sheng was not Allyssa’s second choice and their names were not even next to each other on the 2022 Oakland Election Ballot.

I want to make sure you understand the gravity of this problem. First, we presumably have votes counted each day for each candidate. Second, one should expect that the percentage of those new votes counted and shared in Rank Choice Voting to be different for each day of the vote count, right? Third, that’s where the problem comes in: the vote. The percentage of those new votes counted and shared in Rank Choice Voting from Allyssa Victory to Sheng Thao is for all practical purposes nearly the exact same percentage each day. That makes no sense at all for that pattern to turn up three to four times in a row – unless it was predetermined. But that’s what happened.

Stay tuned.

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2 thoughts on “Oakland Mayoral Race: Sheng Thao Over Loren Taylor By 680 Votes: Allyssa Victory’s Fishy RCV Votes

  1. Make sure to stretch next time before you reach this hard. Every progressive voter guide had Sheng Alyssa Hodge 1-2-3 #TaketheL #GetaLife

  2. Make sure you read before making really stupid assumptions. I think so many people are clouded with extremism politics they can’t see when something has to do with math dynamics. I am not going to repeat the point here. I expected you to be able to pick up a simple CONCEPT! Stop being stupid for God’s sakes.

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